Author: Anna Pluta
Implications of the Covid-19 pandemic on high school graduates’ plans and education path
New SSE Riga/BICEPS occasional paper by Zane Varpina (SSE Riga, BICEPS), Kata Fredheim (SSE Riga, BICEPS) and Marija Krumina (BICEPS).
This research was supported by Latvian Council of Science, Funding number: lzp-2018/1-0486, acronym: FLPP-2018-1.
Abstract.
Over the period 2020-21 Latvian schools experienced one of the longest closure periods in Europe. Hence Covid-19 significantly impacted high school pupils, especially those graduating in 2021, i.e. half of the secondary school programme they acquired was delivered remotely. Their learning and social experiences are distinct from that of previous cohorts. The findings are directly relevant for higher education institutions to further adapt to the background and needs of this student cohort.
To examine this cohort’s experience, this chapter empirically examines adolescents at the point of their graduation from high school to learn what impact the pandemic has had on their quality education and plans. The findings provide insight into how they evaluate the remote studies and their knowledge, how they perceive their mental state, and what disruption to plans it has caused. We learn that most students found remote studies more difficult than onsite learning and associate it with lack of knowledge behind the grades earned. They have experienced lack of motivation and miss real life communication with their friends, even though they occasionally admit not breaking lockdown rules and meeting peers. The most common concern among graduates is lost opportunities they would otherwise have, however, we also notice impressive resilience when they imply that the pandemic has opened new opportunities that otherwise would not be possible, along with self-development and character growth. Overall, the stress level for adolescents was moderate to high. Covid-19 has caused disruptions to plans, some more like opportunities others like limitations.
The insights may provide understanding to how these students require a very different approach from educators and staff alike. Higher education institutions have the opportunity to adapt and innovate, to custom the content of studies and communication form to the diverse incoming generations.
Key words: Secondary school graduates, adolescents, study plans, Covid-19, pandemic, school-life transition
Latvian strengths and weaknesses in moving towards closing the gender gap in unpaid housework and care
Global Gender Gap in Unpaid Care: Why Domestic Work Still Remains a Woman’s Burden? A new FROGEE policy brief on the situation in the region, containing an overview of the situation in Latvia written by Anna Pluta (BICEPS).
According to the Gender Equality Index Latvia is the second most equal country in the European Union in terms of gender gaps in the involvement of women and men in caring obligations, as well as their contribution to cooking and housework. In this brief I review Latvian strengths and weaknesses in moving towards closing the gender gap in unpaid housework and care. In particular, I show that despite widespread views in favor of gender equality in family life, the great burden of care and housework responsibilities is still shouldered by women in Latvian households.
The full Report on the situation in Latvia is available here.
Reports from Armenia, Belarus, Georgia, Poland, Ukraine and Russia are available in English and the national languages here.
About FROGEE Policy Briefs
FROGEE Policy Briefs is a special series aimed at providing overviews and the popularization of economic research related to gender equality issues. Debates around policies related to gender equality are often highly politicized. We believe that using arguments derived from the most up to date research-based knowledge would help us build a more fruitful discussion of policy proposals and in the end achieve better outcomes.
The aim of the briefs is to improve the understanding of research-based arguments and their implications, by covering the key theories and the most important findings in areas of special interest to the current debate. The briefs start with short general overviews of a given theme, which are followed by a presentation of country-specific contexts, specific policy challenges, implemented reforms and a discussion of other policy options.
Disclaimer: Opinions expressed in policy briefs and other publications are those of the authors; they do not necessarily reflect those of the FREE Network and its research institutes.
Foreign-Owned Firms and Labor Tax Evasion in Latvia
It is well-documented that foreign-owned firms often pay higher wages than domestic firms. This phenomenon is usually explained by foreign firms being more productive. In this brief, we discuss another mechanism that drives the wage premium for employees of foreign-owned firms. By comparing income and expenditures of households led by employees of foreign-owned firms, domestic firms and public enterprises in Latvia, we show that employees of foreign-owned firms receive less undeclared cash payments than employees of domestic firms.
Introduction
A vast economic literature documents a wage premium for employees of foreign-owned firms (e.g., Heyman et al., 2007; Hijzen et al., 2013). This can result from self-selection of foreign firms in highly productive sectors (Guadalupe et al., 2012) or from a productivity increase (Harding and Javorcik, 2012). In a recent paper (Gavoille and Zasova, 2021), we provide evidence of a third driver: foreign-owned firms are more (labor) tax compliant than domestic firms.
Envelope wage, i.e., an unreported cash-in-hand complement to the official wage, is a widespread phenomenon in transition and post-transition countries (e.g., Gorodnichenko et al., 2009 in Russia, Putninš and Sauka, 2015 in the Baltic States, Tonin, 2011 in Hungary). Employees are officially registered, but the income reported to tax authorities is only a fraction of the true income, the difference being paid in cash. If domestic firms are more likely to underreport wages than foreign-owned ones, the documented wage premium for employees of foreign-owned firms is overestimated.
Methodology and data
To compare the prevalence of income underreporting in foreign and domestic firms, we use an approach similar to Pissarides and Weber (1989). This approach is based on two main assumptions. First, even though households participating in an expenditure survey can have incentives to misreport their expenditures, they accurately report their expenditure on food.
The second assumption is that if all households would fully report their income, similar households would report a similar share of spending on food. If, however, a group of households is likely to underreport income, their fraction of income spent on food will systematically be higher than that of tax-compliant households. Using the propensity to food consumption of a group of households that cannot evade payroll tax as a benchmark, we can identify groups of tax-evading households by comparing their food consumption with the reference group.
In this brief, we mainly focus on three household groups: households where the head is an (1) employee of a foreign-owned firm (reference group), (2) employee of a public sector enterprise, and (3) employee of a domestic firm. We introduce public sector employees as an additional comparison group, since they cannot collude with employers to underreport wages. Hence, our approach allows us to test whether households in the third group are more likely to receive undeclared payment than households in the first group, and additionally test if our reference group is systematically different from public sector employees.
We estimate Engel curve-type relationships for food consumption for different types of households, i.e., we estimate how households’ food consumption varies with income depending on employment of the main breadwinner (employed in a foreign-owned firm, public sector enterprise, domestic firm or self-employed), controlling for various household characteristics (number of adults, size of household, place of residence, level of education of the main breadwinner, and other).
Our data comes from three sources. First, we use the 2020 round of the Latvian Household Budget Survey (HBS), which provides information on household consumption, income and characteristics in 2019. Second, we use an administrative matched employer-employee dataset providing information on reported wages for the whole population of employees in Latvia. We match the second database with HBS using (anonymized) individual IDs contained in both datasets. Finally, we use (anonymized) firm IDs contained in the second database to merge it with a third data source, which provides detailed information on firms’ foreign-ownership status.
Results
For simplicity, in the rest of the brief we denote “household where the head is an employee of a foreign-owned firm” as simply “foreign-owned households”. A similar simplification applies to other household groups.
Comparing domestic and foreign-owned households, domestic households spend a higher share of their income on food. Figure 1 plots a non-parametric Engel curve for the two groups. The two curves exhibit fairly similar behavior, but the Engel curve for domestic households always lies above the one for foreign-owned households: for a given income, domestic households always spend a larger fraction on food than foreign-owned ones.
Our model estimations provide two main results. First, we find that the net wage premium for employees of foreign firms is 13-35%, depending on the sample and the source of data on income. Second, we show that domestic households are more likely to underreport income than foreign-owned households. On average, domestic firm households are estimated to conceal 26% more income than foreign-owned ones. At the same time, public sector households do not exhibit a significantly different food consumption pattern than foreign-owned firm households. Assuming that public sector households cannot evade, foreign-owned firm households hence do not underreport. The estimated share of concealed income is even larger (about 40%) if we restrict our sample to households where the head is aged below 50 years and is full-time employed.
Figure 1. Engel curve

Source: authors’ calculations. Note: We follow Hurst et al. (2014). We regress (administrative) wage and food consumption separately on demographic controls to condition out these factors. We recenter the residuals at the unconditional averages for each group and use these residuals to estimate the Engel curve with a cubic spline.
Conclusions
In a context of widespread labor tax evasion, the observed wage premium for employees of foreign-owned firms can be driven by payroll tax compliance. How much of the wage premium can underreporting explain? Our results for Latvia suggest a net wage premium of 13% to 35% for the group of foreign-owned households. This roughly corresponds to the magnitude of the underreporting factor, indicating that nearly all of the wage premium can be explained by labor tax evasion. Even though the precise underreporting point estimates should be cautiously interpreted, and this 1-to-1 relation is anecdotal, this nevertheless highlights the potential importance of envelope wages in explaining the wage premium of employees of foreign-owned firms when labor tax evasion is prevalent.
Acknowledgement: This brief is based on a recent article published in Economics Letters (Gavoille and Zasova, 2021). The authors gratefully acknowledge funding from LZP FLPP research grant No.LZP-2018/2-0067 InTEL (Institutions and Tax Enforcement in Latvia).
References
- Gavoille, Nicolas; and Anna Zasova, 2021. “Foreign ownership and labor tax evasion: Evidence from Latvia”, Economics Letters, 207, 110030.
- Gorodnichenko, Yuriy; and Jorge Martinez‐Vazquez; and Klara Sabirianova Peter, 2009. “Myth and Reality of Flat Tax Reform: Micro Estimates of Tax Evasion Response and Welfare Effects in Russia“, Journal of Political Economy, 117 (3), pages 504-554.
- Guadalupe, Maria; and Olga Kuzmina; and Catherine Thomas, 2012. “Innovation and Foreign Ownership“, American Economic Review, 102 (7), pages 3594-3627.
- Harding, Torfinn; and Beata S. Javorcik, 2012. “Foreign Direct Investment and Export Upgrading“, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 94 (4), pages 964–980.
- Heyman, Fredrik; and Fredrik Sjöholm; and Patrik Gustavsson Tingvall, 2007. “Is there really a foreign ownership wage premium? Evidence from matched employer–employee data“, Journal of International Economics, 73 (2), pages 355-376.
- Hijzen, Alexander; and Pedro S. Martins; and Thorsten Schank; and Richard Upward, 2013. “Foreign-owned firms around the world: A comparative analysis of wages and employment at the micro-level“, European Economic Review, 60, pages 170-188.
- Hurst, Erik; and Geng Li; and Benjamin Pugsley, 2014. “Are Household Surveys Like Tax Forms? Evidence from Income Underreporting of the Self-Employed“, The Review of Economics and Statistics, 96 (1), pages 19–33.
- Pissarides, Christopher A.; and Guglielmo Weber, 1989. “An expenditure-based estimate of Britain’s black economy“, Journal of Public Economics, Volume 39 (1), pages 17-32
- Putninš, Tālis J.; and Arnis Sauka, 2015. “Measuring the shadow economy using company managers“, Journal of Comparative Economics, 43 (2), pages 471–490.
- Tonin, Mirco, 2011. “Minimum wage and tax evasion: Theory and evidence“, Journal of Public Economics, 95 (11–12), pages 1635-1651.
Million Dollar Baby: Should Parental Benefits Depend on Wages When Payroll Tax Evasion is Present?
New SSE Riga/BICEPS research paper by Vitalijs Jascisens (HSE University) and Anna Zasova (BICEPS).
Abstract. This paper explores the effect of tying social security benefits to declared wages on firm-worker collusion and strategic income reporting before the benefit entitlement. We use administrative data from Latvia covering the entire working population over a 15-year period from 1996 to 2010 to study generous parental benefits, which depend on the reported wage in the time period before the childbirth. Our analysis delivers three principal results. First, we observe a sharp increase in the wage during the time period taken into account to calculate parental benefits, and interpret the obtained result as a collusive legalization of previously unreported income with an aim to increase the future benefit. Depending on the specification, we conclude that during this period the wage on average increases by 5.4%-7.5%. Second, obtained effects are highly heterogeneous. We find that the wage growth is much higher in small firms, where it is presumably easier to sustain collusion between employees and employers. Finally, we demonstrate that legalization of wages is temporary and lasts only until the end of the period taken into account to calculate parental benefits.
JEL Code: H26
Keywords: Payroll tax evasion, employee-employer collusion
Foreign ownership and labor tax evasion: evidence from Latvia
New SSE Riga/BICEPS research paper by Nicolas Gavoille (SSE Riga, BICEPS) and Anna Zasova (BICEPS).
Abstract. This paper shows that in a context of widespread labor tax evasion, employees of foreign-owned firms receive less undeclared cash payments than employees of domestic firms. The empirical analysis relies on a combination of administrative and survey data and implements an expenditure-based underreporting analysis `a la Pissarides and Weber (1989). This provides an alternative explanation for the wage premium for employees of foreign-owned firms observed in similar environments.
Keywords: FDI, Tax evasion, Envelope wage, Wage premium
JEL: E26, O17, O19, H26, H32
Minimum Wage Spike and Income Underreporting: a Back-of-the-Envelope-Wage Analysis
New SSE Riga/BICEPS research paper by Nicolas Gavoille (SSE Riga, BICEPS) and Anna Zasova (BICEPS).
Abstract. The labor markets of many transition countries are characterized by two features: a spike at the minimum wage in wage distribution and widespread use of so-called envelope wages, i.e., non-declared cash coming in addition to the official wage. In this paper, we present a body of suggestive evidence highlighting the prevalence of wage underreporting among minimum wage earners. We study two minimum wage hikes implemented in Latvia in 2014 and 2015, and show that (i) minimum wage employees are more likely to survive these minimum wage hikes than employees earning slightly more, and (ii) minimum wage employees are more likely to switch to part-time work within the same f irm than their peers earning slightly more. These effects are present in the sample of small (more prone to tax evasion) firms and are not found in the sample of big (less prone to tax evasion) firms. In addition, we show that minimum wage earners switching from employment in a small to a big firm enjoy a significantly larger wage gain than employees earning slightly more. Taken together, these results are consistent with tax evaders being overrepresented among minimum wage earners and are hard to rationalize otherwise.
Keywords: Minimum wage, wage underreporting, tax evasion
JEL: H26, J08, J46
Digitalization issues in national accounts: digital intermediary platforms in Latvia
Duration: September 2021 – November 2022
Projekts tiek īstenots Eiropas Savienības Statistikas biroja granta projekta “Priekšizpētes projekts par digitalizācijas jautājumiem nacionālajos kontos” (Granta līguma Nr. 101038806 — 2020-LV-DIGITAL-NA, projekta identifikācijas kods: G-20.20) ietvaros.
Project is funded by the Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia.
What we pay in the shadows: Labor tax evasion, minimum wage hike and employment
New SSE Riga/BICEPS research paper by Nicolas Gavoille (SSE Riga, BICEPS) and Anna Zasova (BICEPS).
Abstract. The interactions between minimum wage policy and tax evasion remain largely unknown. We study firm-level employment effects of a large and biting minimum wage increase in the context of widespread wage underreporting. We apply machine learning to classify firms between tax-compliant and tax-evading using a unique combination of Latvian administrative and survey data. We then show that firms engaged in labor tax evasion are insensitive to the minimum wage shock. Our results indicate that these firms use wage underreporting as an adjustment margin, converting (part of) undeclared cash payments into legal wage. Increasing minimum wage contributes to tax rule enforcement, but comes at the cost of negative employment consequences for compliant firms.
Keywords: Minimum wage, employment, tax evasion
JEL: J08, J38, H26
Alf Vanags memorial lecture 2021
Watch Alf Vanags memorial lecture 2021 and the keynote address by Ruben Enikolopov (New Economic School), “Tax Evasion of Politically Connected Firms”, at the 2nd conference “Corruption, Tax Evasion and Institutions”.
Who is more eager to leave? Differences in emigration intentions among Latvian and Russian speaking school graduates in Latvia
New SSE Riga/BICEPS occasional paper by Zane Varpina (SSE Riga, BICEPS) and Kata Fredheim (SSE Riga, BICEPS) and Marija Krumina (BICEPS).
This work was supported by the National Research Program Project grant number VPP-IZM 2018/1-0015 and by the Latvian Council of Science, project No. lzp-2018/1-0486.
Abstract.
Data on migration flows suggest that young people are highly mobile. Yet, there are gaps in the evidence concerning the factors driving young people’s international migration in Latvia. Latvia is a potentially interesting case because of the high rate of migration from the country, but also because it is a complex ethnic and linguistic environment. Latvian and Russian speaking populations are shown to have diverse migration drivers, and this study addresses
the differences in attitudes to studying and living abroad for adolescents at the time of school graduation. Literature suggests that Russian-speaking population have higher propensity to emigrate. We aim to contribute to the literature by exploring differences in migration intentions between Latvian and Russian speaking high school graduates.
This study is based on individual-level survey data of secondary school graduates in Latvia in 2020, amidst COVID-19 pandemic. We analyse the strength of migration intentions from definitely not leaving Latvia to surely planning to emigrate. We conclude that Russian-speakers exhibit stronger intentions to emigrate compared Latvian-speaking youngsters, driven by wider networks and expected higher returns to their human capital abroad.
Keywords: Youth migration, migration intentions, adolescents, Russian-speaking minority.
