Event Categories: BICEPS/SSE Riga Pētnieciskais seminārs

We kindly invite you to the BICEPS/SSE Riga research seminar! It will take place on Thursday, February 6 at 17.00 in room 611 with the presentation:

“Does Nationalization Work? Evidence from Government Takeovers in Russia” by Carsten Sprenger, New Economic School, Moscow.

Abstract

After the decade of large-scale privatization in the 1990s, many emerging market economies have undergone a policy shift towards consolidation and extension of the state sector, partly through selected nationalizations. Also the Russian government has been increasing its role as an owner in several sectors of the economy since the 2000s. We study the factors that drive nationalization of private companies and find economic factors such as profitability or revenue growth to be irrelevant while industry affiliation, in particular, an indicator variable for strategic industries is a good predictor of nationalization. We further study the effects of nationalization on firm-level outcomes such as revenues, investment, leverage, employment, wages, and operational performance (profitability) of target companies. To address these questions, we use a comprehensive hand-collected data set of more than 250 government takeovers in Russia between 2004 and 2013 and a carefully matched sample of companies that stayed under private ownership. Preliminary results for a subsample of transactions from 2004 to 2008 show a neutral effect of nationalization on performance and increased financial leverage. We further distinguish companies that have been bailed out (based on low values of equity and losses in consecutive years) from companies that have been nationalized to supposedly strategic or other reasons. Finally, we highlight changes in sources of funding from private to state-owned banks, subsidies, CEO turnover, and the composition of the board of directors going along with nationalization and how they affect match-adjusted performance changes.

Next seminars

2020-02-20         “The Early History of Gold Mining in the Russian Far East and Northeast China” by Mark Gamsa (Tel Aviv University).

2020-03-05         “Wealth Distribution and Monetary Policy” by Ludmila Fadejeva (Bank of Latvia).

2020-03-19         “Modelling the population of collusive firms” by Chloé Le Coq (SITE, University of Paris II Panthéon-Assas). Seminar is CANCELLED!

No prior registration for the seminar is necessary. For any questions about the seminar, or if you have a colleague that would like to be added to the distribution list, please write to Nicolas Gavoille.

We kindly invite you to the BICEPS/SSE Riga research seminar! It will take place on Thursday, January 23 at 17.00 in room 611 with the presentation:

“Lights along the frontier: convergence of economic activity in the proximity of the Polish-German border, 1992-2012” by Michal Myck (CenEA).

Abstract

This paper studies regional economic development on the municipality-level in Poland and Germany along the Oder-Neisse border. We use high-quality satellite night-time light intensity data as an innovative, comparable and reliable measure to proxy for economic activity on both sides of the border consistently over a long period of time (1992-2012). We use descriptive heat maps as well as regression analysis to investigate two aspects: first, how far is the economic convergence across and within municipalities along the Polish-German border? Second, what effect does the distance to the border have on economic activity as measured with light emissions? Our findings suggest that – somewhat surprisingly – convergence across the border has been almost complete. Polish towns that used to be economically much weaker have caught up with German towns. Also, we show that the patterns of economic activity related to distance vary greatly for Germany and Poland.

Michał Myck is Director and Member of the Board of CenEA. He received his M.Phil. degree in Economics at the University of Oxford and in March 2006 he received his Ph.D. degree at the University of Warsaw. He is currently associated as Privatdozent with Universität Greifswald. He is a Research Fellow at IZA Bonn and regularly cooperates with the World Bank. His research has focused on modelling of labour market behaviour and on the implications of labour market regulations on employment and retirement decisions. He has studied the effectiveness of tax and benefit systems and worked on issues related to measurement of poverty and income inequality.

Next seminars

2020-02-06          “Does Nationalization Work? Evidence from Government Takeovers in Russia” by Carsten Sprenger (NES).

2020-02-20          “The Early History of Gold Mining in the Russian Far East and Northeast China” by Mark Gamsa (Tel Aviv University).

No prior registration for the seminar is necessary. For any questions about the seminar, or if you have a colleague that would like to be added to the distribution list, please write to Nicolas Gavoille.

We kindly invite you to the BICEPS/SSE Riga research seminar! It will take place on Thursday, January 9 at 17.00 in room 611 with the presentation:

“Can large trade shocks cause crises? The case of the Finnish-Soviet trade collapse” by Adam Gulan (Bank of Finland), co-authored with Markus Haavio and Juha Kilponen (Bank of Finland).

Abstract

We study macroeconomic consequences of a major trade disruption using the example of the Finnish-Soviet trade collapse in 1991. This is a rare case of a well-identified large trade shock in a developed economy. We find that the shock had a significant effect on Finnish output. While the direct trade channel effect was rather moderate, the shock led to significant tightening of financial conditions. It was therefore endogenously amplified due to the propagation through the domestic financial sector. Even so, the trade collapse was insufficient to generate an all-out economic crisis. It can account for only a part of the Finnish Great Depression (1990 − 1993). The crisis was triggered and prolonged by the meltdown of the overheated financial and banking sectors since 1989. We show that the financial system remained a major independent source of shocks throughout the depression.

Adam Gulan is a senior adviser at the Bank of Finland’s Monetary Policy and Research Department. He graduated from Rutgers University in 2011. Prior to his PhD studies he also worked at the National Bank of Poland. His research interests include, broadly, macroeconomics, international finance, applied econometrics and economic history. He has been recently working on business cycle fluctuations and financial frictions in open economies. He has taught macroeconomics at the Finnish Doctoral Program in Economics.

Next seminars

2020-01-23        “Lights along the frontier: convergence of economic activity in the proximity of the Polish-German border, 1992-2012” by Michal Myck (CenEA).

2020-02-06         “Does Nationalization Work? Evidence from Government Takeovers in Russia” by Carsten Sprenger (NES).

2020-02-20         “The Early History of Gold Mining in the Russian Far East and Northeast China” by Mark Gamsa (Tel Aviv University).

No prior registration for the seminar is necessary. For any questions about the seminar, or if you have a colleague that would like to be added to the distribution list, please write to Nicolas Gavoille.

We kindly invite you to the BICEPS/SSE Riga research seminar! It will take place on Thursday, December 5 at 17.00 in room 611 with the presentation:

“Economic Development, the Nutrition Trap and Metabolic Disease” by Swapnil Singh (Bank of Lithuania), co-authored with Nancy Luke (Pennsylvania State University), Kaivan Munshi (University of Cambridge), Anu Mary Oommen (Christian Medical College).

Abstract

This research provides a unified explanation for: (i) the persistence of malnutrition and (ii) the increased prevalence of metabolic disease (diabetes, hypertension, cardiovascular disease) among normal weight individuals with economic development. Our theory is based on an epigenetically determined set point for BMI or bodyweight, which is adapted to conditions of scarcity in the pre-modern economy, but which subsequently fails to adjust to rapid economic change. During the process of development, some individuals thus remain at their low-BMI set point, despite the increase in their consumption, while others who have escaped the nutrition trap (but are not necessarily overweight) are at increased risk of metabolic disease. The theory is validated with microdata from India, Indonesia, and Ghana and can simultaneously explain inter-regional (Asia-Africa) differences in nutritional status and the prevalence of diabetes.

Swapnil Singh got his PhD in Economics from University of Amsterdam in 2017.  At present he holds a Principal Research Economist position at the Bank of Lithuania and a researcher position at Kaunas University of Technology. His research interest lies in quantitative macroeconomics (household finance) and development economics. His present work in development economics focuses on human capital. With respect to quantitative macroeconomics, he is working on the  household participation in the mortgage market.

Next seminars in 2020

2020-01-09         “Can large trade shocks cause crises? The case of the Finnish-Soviet trade collapse” by Adam Gulan (Bank of Finland).

2020-01-23         “Lights along the frontier: convergence of economic activity in the proximity of the Polish-German border, 1992-2012” by Michal Myck (CenEA).

2020-02-06        “Does Nationalization Work? Evidence from Government Takeovers in Russia” by Carsten Sprenger (NES).

No prior registration for the seminar is necessary. For any questions about the seminar, or if you have a colleague that would like to be added to the distribution list, please write to Nicolas Gavoille.

We kindly invite you to the BICEPS/SSE Riga research seminar! It will take place on Thursday, November 21 at 17.00 in room 611 with the presentation:

“Private rental housing market underdevelopment: life cycle model simulations for Poland” by Michal Rubszek (Warsaw School of Economics).

Abstract

The share of private rental housing market in Central and Eastern European countries is low. With a survey data from Poland, I show that strong tenure preferences of households toward owning can be attributed to both economic and psychological factors. Building on these findings, I develop a life-cycle model and I conduct counterfactual simulations to evaluate how changes in the structure of the rental market affect its size. I show that in the alternative scenario, which assumes (i.) a change in the quality of rental services, (ii.) lowering rental prices and (iii.) diminishing fiscal incentives to own, the size of the private rental market is significantly higher, which leads to welfare gains for poor households.

Michał Rubaszek is the Assistant Professor at the Warsaw School of Economics. He worked as an economic Advisor in Narodowy Bank Polski (Research Department) as well as expert in the European Central Bank (DG Economics). Michał Rubaszek holds a Ph.D. degree in economics, obtained at the Warsaw School of Economics. His research interest cover international economics, forecasting, heterogeneous agent models and exchange rate economics. He published i.a. in the Journal of International Economics, International Journal of Forecasting, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Journal of Economic Surveys, Macroeconomic Dynamics and the presented article is forthcoming in the Baltic Journal of Economics.

No prior registration for the seminar is necessary. For any questions about the seminar, or if you have a colleague that would like to be added to the distribution list, please write to Nicolas Gavoille.

We kindly invite you to the BICEPS/SSE Riga research seminar! It will take place on Thursday, October 31 at 17.00 in room 611 with the presentation:

“Ideology, divided governments, and fiscal policy” by Mariana Lopes Da Fonseca (University of St. Gallen), co-authored with Christian Bruns (University of Gottingen).

Abstract

We study how preferences for redistribution and political alignment affect fiscal policy. For the purpose, we leverage the over-time variation in the incentives to tax resulting from an exogenous reduction in the default tax multiplier for local income taxation in Portugal. Findings show that preferences for redistribution affect post-reform income taxation. Right-leaning mayors reduce local income taxation when compared to left-leaning mayors. This result is strongest when the executive and legislative branches of the municipalities share the same ideology. In the presence of divided governments, we obtain intermediate levels of local income taxation.  Results are in line with divided governments having a moderation effect on fiscal policy.

No prior registration for the seminar is necessary. For any questions about the seminar, or if you have a colleague that would like to be added to the distribution list, please write to Nicolas Gavoille.

We kindly invite you to the BICEPS/SSE Riga research seminar! It will take place on Thursday, October 17 at 17.00 in room 611 with the presentation:

“The Intergenerational Impact of Reduced Generosity in the Social Safety Net” by Agne Suziedelyte (City, University of London).

Abstract

This paper provides new causal evidence on how a reduction in welfare cash assistance to newly separated parents impacts the parents themselves and their young-adult children. Our paper differs from the rest of the literature evaluating the intergenerational impacts of welfare policy because it focuses on the role of welfare assistance specifically at the point of parental relationship separation. A-priori, it is unclear if a policy that provides welfare assistance to newly separated mothers produces work-disincentive effects and/or whether, on balance, it helps or hinders recovery from the event of separation. We use a reform that withdrew welfare eligibility from mothers who separated from their partners on or after 1 July 2006, while mothers who separated before this date were exempt from the new rules. We exploit this discontinuity in a Regression Discontinuity Design framework using biweekly administrative social security records. We find that the loss of welfare eligibility at the time of relationship breakdown reduces mothers’ welfare income, but increases their employment and family income. The reform is found to decrease young adults’ reliance on unemployment benefits. The effects on young adults’ receipt of other types of welfare payments, fertility, homelessness or financial independence cannot be identified precisely.

No prior registration for the seminar is necessary. For any questions about the seminar, or if you have a colleague that would like to be added to the distribution list, please write to Nicolas Gavoille.

We kindly invite you to the BICEPS/SSE Riga research seminar! It will take place on Thursday, June 13 at 17.00 in room 611 with the presentation:

“The rise of trading on close: drivers and price discovery implications” by Marta Khomin (University Technology Sydney), co-authored with Talis Putnins (SSE Riga, University Technology Sydney).

Abstract

In many markets, trading volumes have shifted dramatically towards the close of the market, putting increasing stress on closing mechanisms. We show that index investing, including ETFs, is by far the most important driver of this trend. The rise in algorithmic trading and resulting falling trade sizes also increases the demand to trade on close, where liquidity is consolidated. Using exogenous shocks to dark trading, we find a substitution effect between dark pools and trading on close, both being mechanisms favored by large institutional investors. Finally, we show that the increasing trading on close does not tend to increase the informativeness of closing prices, highlighting the continued importance of the continuous trading session for price discovery.

No prior registration for the seminar is necessary. For any questions about the seminar, or if you have a colleague that would like to be added to the distribution list, please write to Nicolas Gavoille.