# BICEPS/SSE Riga Research Seminar: Modelling the population of collusive firms

**UPDATE: Seminar is CANCELLED!**

We kindly invite you to the BICEPS/SSE Riga research seminar! It will take place on ** Thursday, March 19 at 17.00 in room 611** with the presentation:

**“Modelling the population of collusive firms” by Chloé Le Coq (SITE, University of Paris II Panthéon-Assas)**, co-authored with Catarina Marvão (Dublin Institute of Technology) and Tove Forsbacka Karlsson (PhD at SSE).

__Abstract__

Consistent estimates of the probability of a cartel birth and death, as well as the factors influencing these are essential to designing optimal policies to detect and deter cartels. Due to limited access to data and the illegal nature of cartels in most jurisdictions, cartel studies are typically plagued by an inherent issue of sample selection bias. This paper analyzes the size of this bias, by using a unique dataset covering the population of legal cartels in Sweden between 1947 and 1993. We calculate the rates of cartel birth and death through a Hidden Markov model which take into account that the activity of cartels in the register might be noisy. We then use count models (zero-inflated Poisson and zero-inflated Negative Binomial) to calculate the expected number of cartels in the economy. Using the two estimated figures (the share and the absolute number of cartels present in the economy) we calculate the estimated total number of firms in the economy. We then compare this number against the true number in order to estimate the size of the sample selection bias in the data.

__Next seminar__

2020-04-02 “Local banks as difficult to replace SME lenders: Evidence from bank corrective programs” by Oskar Kowalewski (IESEG, Paris). **Seminar is CANCELLED!**

No prior registration for the seminar is necessary. For any questions about the seminar, or if you have a colleague that would like to be added to the distribution list, please write to Nicolas Gavoille.